The research firm Strategy Analytics predicts that the market for automotive electronics systems will grow from $170 billion in 2011 to $266 billion by 2016 – a compounded average annual growth rate of 9.3%.
The firm’s report, “Automotive Electronics System Demand Forecast 2010 to 2019: Growth in Uncertain Times,” describes growth in hybrid and electric vehicle drivetrains, advanced safety systems, and vehicle production growth in emerging economies.
Strategy Analytics expects demand for automotive electronic systems to increase by 11% from 2011 to 2012 while global vehicle production grows by 6%. The average electronic system content per-vehicle will increase from $2,200 to $2,300, or less than 5%. The firm noted that hybrid vehicle production was severely curtailed last year by the earthquake and tsunami in Japan but has bounced back this year.
The global market for automotive electronic systems appears healthy in 2012, according to Ian Riches, director of Strategy Analytics Automotive Electronics service. Electronic system demand from vehicles manufactured in Thailand and Japan is up strongly from 2011, he says, mainly because natural disasters severely impacted 2011 demand.
Strategy Analytics estimates 7 to 9% growth in content per-vehicle in BRIC countries from 2011 to 2012 as those countries catch up with global standards. In Europe, however, demand for electronic systems is expected to fall by 4% this year after a drop in vehicle production of nearly 8%.
Overall automotive electronic system demand is expected to grow at 9.1% per-year in dollar terms between 2011 and 2016. In the longer term, from 2012 to 2019, dollar growth is expected to average less than 7% per-year. Vehicle production growth is predicted to average around 5% per-year over the same period.
Powertrain systems represent the strongest source of growth in automotive electronics, according to Strategy Analytics. On a dollars per-vehicle basis they are up by 7% in 2012 over 2011. Safety systems are up by 6.7%.